354 Raider Hollow Rd · Munfordville, KY 42765

$119,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 501 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1998 18 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

18.44+/- Acres. Log-sided, 500 sqft, 1 bed, 1bath (w/large walk-in closet) hunting cabin with water, electric, one car garage & storage building. Mostly wooded with some open bottom land for a garden or horses. Hunting opportunities throughout with deer stand and enclosed metal shooting blind to remain. Road frontage with phone and internet available.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Open floor plan
• Metal roof

Tags

• NEARLY 20 ACRES
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• METAL ROOF
• LARGE DECK
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 1 parking space
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Log construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Outbuilding; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Electric heating; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Vaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (14.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (35.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $78k (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.8% in Munfordville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#128 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hart County (rural): math 21% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #119 of 165 in KY (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Munfordville Elementary School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #293 of 676 statewide, top 44%, 492 students, 64% FRL); Hart County High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 679 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 79 units permitted in Hart County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($826 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $77,640 (35.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.63%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $58,587
• Equity at exit: $107,655

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $177,479
• Equity at exit: $232,162

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42765

• Home prices YoY: 26.8%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $776 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $456/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$163
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $904

Max offer price $101,640

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-33	-5% $-67	+0% $-101	+5% $-135	+10% $-169
Rent	-10% $-162	-5% $-132	+0% $-101	+5% $-70	+10% $-40
Rate	-1.0pp $-41	-0.5pp $-71	base $-101	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $119,500 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,500 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,500 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,500 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,500 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,500 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,500 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,500 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on marketlisting id $119,500 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,500 Active 252 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,500 Active 251 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,500 Active 249 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,500 Active 247 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,500 Active 246 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,500 Active 245 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,500 Active 244 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,500 Active 243 DOM
18. 2026-04-10
    price $139,500
19. 2025-11-04
    price $148,990
20. 2025-09-29
    listed $168,990 Active
21. 2025-05-01
    price $169,000
22. 2025-03-07
    price $189,000
23. 2015-05-05
    soldstatus $125,000 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    18.44+/- Acres. Log-sided, 500 sqft, 1 bed, 1bath (w/large walk-in closet) hunting cabin with water, electric, one car garage & storage building. Mostly wooded with some open bottom land for a garden or horses. Hunting opportunities throughout with deer stand and enclosed metal shooting blind to remain. Road frontage with phone and internet available.

24. 2015-05-05
    soldstatus $45,000

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    18.44+/- Acres. Log-sided, 500 sqft, 1 bed, 1bath (w/large walk-in closet) hunting cabin with water, electric, one car garage & storage building. Mostly wooded with some open bottom land for a garden or horses. Hunting opportunities throughout with deer stand and enclosed metal shooting blind to remain. Road frontage with phone and internet available.

25. 2014-10-19
    listed $54,950 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    18.44+/- Acres. Log-sided, 500 sqft, 1 bed, 1bath (w/large walk-in closet) hunting cabin with water, electric, one car garage & storage building. Mostly wooded with some open bottom land for a garden or horses. Hunting opportunities throughout with deer stand and enclosed metal shooting blind to remain. Road frontage with phone and internet available.

26. 2014-10-19
    listed $54,950

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    18.44+/- Acres. Log-sided, 500 sqft, 1 bed, 1bath (w/large walk-in closet) hunting cabin with water, electric, one car garage & storage building. Mostly wooded with some open bottom land for a garden or horses. Hunting opportunities throughout with deer stand and enclosed metal shooting blind to remain. Road frontage with phone and internet available.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $456 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,028 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$572/yr (+$48/mo · 125.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$456
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$745
• − Management: −$745
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable loss: −$3,398
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$815
• After-tax cash flow: $-398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hart County
• NCES district ID: 2102640
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $34,931
• Composite: 24.28/100
• National rank: #7714
• State rank: #119 of 165 in KY

Livability — Munfordville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #6111

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Munfordville, KY
• Population (ZIP): 7,030

Population outlook (Hart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,897 people
• By 2030: 19,008 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 19,032 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 18,584 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 17,303 · -8.4%
• By 2100: 14,894 · -21.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Polish 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · German/W. Germanic 13% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hart

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.0) · D 19.5% · R 79.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -60.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.0 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.29%
• Current HPI: 365.6917
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+153.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $139,500 HKARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $148,990 HKARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $168,990 HKARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $169,000 HKARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $189,000 HKARMLS
• 2015-05-05 Sold (MLS) $45,000 HKARMLS
• 2015-05-05 Sold (MLS) $125,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2014-10-19 Listed $54,950 HKARMLS
• 2014-10-19 Listed $54,950 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $456 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.