1707 Rambling Stone Dr · Pecan Grove, TX 77406

$449,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1989 10,733 sqft lot $108/sqft · 8% below area Est $490k · 8% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICED TO SELL! PRIME GOLF COURSE LOT WITH TWO PRIMARY SUITES! Positioned along the golf course, this beautifully refreshed two-story home delivers exceptional space, flexibility, and serene views. Fresh interior paint enhances the bright, open feel, while oversized windows fill the home with natural light and showcase the peaceful fairway backdrop. Designed for both everyday living and entertaining, the expansive layout features multiple LARGE living areas and generously sized rooms throughout. A standout feature is the TWO PRIMARY SUITES—one downstairs, one upstairs—creating the perfect multi-generational setup or ideal arrangement for long-term guests. The upstairs offers additional oversized bedrooms and a spacious gameroom. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio and PRIVATE BALCONY overlooking the golf course, perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. With its rare combination of size, layout, and golf course setting, this home offers a lifestyle that is hard to find.

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Covered patio
• Two primary suites

Tags

• TWO PRIMARY SUITES
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE BALCONY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $409k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $405k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $405k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.2% in Pecan Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#256 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pecan Grove El (math 49% / reading 53%, grade C-, #818 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 763 students, 33% FRL); James Bowie Middle (math 45% / reading 53%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 1,639 students, 41% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($142k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $404,558 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.17%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $489,872
• List price: $449,000
• Delta: -8.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2623 Old South Dr	0.40mi	4/3.5	4,203 (+1%)	11mo	$649,000	$154	68
2107 Pecan Trail Dr	0.50mi	4/3.5	4,341 (+5%)	1mo	$649,900	$150	66
1818 Wildwood Ln	0.46mi	4/3.5	4,125 (-1%)	12mo	$570,000	$138	65
2006 Summerland Ct	0.40mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,905 (-6%)	1mo	$665,000	$170	64
2114 Summerland Dr N	0.47mi	4/4.0	4,305 (+4%)	11mo	$700,000	$163	63
2111 S Pecan Trail Dr	0.44mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,866 (-7%)	4mo	$574,000	$148	59
1707 Urban Harvest Dr	0.70mi	4/4.0	4,162 (+0%)	11mo	$840,000	$202	58
1726 Yellow Iris Trl	0.52mi	5/5.5 (+1)	4,189 (+1%)	12mo	$760,000	$181	53
1630 Yellow Iris Trl	0.57mi	5/4.5 (+1)	4,405 (+6%)	5mo	$949,800	$216	52
2031 Pecan Trail Dr	0.48mi	5/3.5 (+1)	4,734 (+14%)	4mo	$740,000	$156	44
1202 Plantation Dr	0.59mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,539 (-15%)	1mo	$499,900	$141	40
1702 Urban Harvest Dr	0.69mi	4/3.5	3,604 (-13%)	12mo	$799,000	$222	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-98,810
• Equity at exit: $66,947

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-149,427
• Equity at exit: $38,821

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1238
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,046 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$858 /mo · $10,299/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$850
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,333

Max offer price $408,908

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $27	-5% $-100	+0% $-227	+5% $-354	+10% $-481
Rent	-10% $-547	-5% $-387	+0% $-227	+5% $-67	+10% $93
Rate	-1.0pp $-1	-0.5pp $-113	base $-227	+0.5pp $-343	+1.0pp $-462

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
331 Old Silo St Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	3568	$5,500	$1.54	6d	1	1.41mi
331 Old Silo St Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	3568	$5,500	$1.54	20d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Pending 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Pending 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Pending 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Pending 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $449,000 Pending 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $449,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $449,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $449,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-05-06
    price $449,000 1010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL! PRIME GOLF COURSE LOT WITH TWO PRIMARY SUITES! Positioned along the golf course, this beautifully refreshed two-story home delivers exceptional space, flexibility, and serene views. Fresh interior paint enhances the bright, open feel, while oversized windows fill the home with natural light and showcase the peaceful fairway backdrop. Designed for both everyday living and entertaining, the expansive layout features multiple LARGE living areas and generously sized rooms throughout. A standout feature is the TWO PRIMARY SUITES—one downstairs, one upstairs—creating the perfect multi-generational setup or ideal arrangement for long-term guests. The upstairs offers additional oversized bedrooms and a spacious gameroom. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio and PRIVATE BALCONY overlooking the golf course, perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. With its rare combination of size, layout, and golf course setting, this home offers a lifestyle that is hard to find.

14. 2026-03-22
    listed $468,500 Active 1010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL! PRIME GOLF COURSE LOT WITH TWO PRIMARY SUITES! Positioned along the golf course, this beautifully refreshed two-story home delivers exceptional space, flexibility, and serene views. Fresh interior paint enhances the bright, open feel, while oversized windows fill the home with natural light and showcase the peaceful fairway backdrop. Designed for both everyday living and entertaining, the expansive layout features multiple LARGE living areas and generously sized rooms throughout. A standout feature is the TWO PRIMARY SUITES—one downstairs, one upstairs—creating the perfect multi-generational setup or ideal arrangement for long-term guests. The upstairs offers additional oversized bedrooms and a spacious gameroom. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio and PRIVATE BALCONY overlooking the golf course, perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. With its rare combination of size, layout, and golf course setting, this home offers a lifestyle that is hard to find.

15. 2026-03-11
    historical
16. 2026-01-28
    status Active
17. 2026-01-25
    status Pending
18. 2026-01-16
    status Pending
19. 2025-11-14
    listed $499,000 Active
20. 2024-08-27
    historical $3,000
21. 2024-08-06
    price $3,000
22. 2024-04-24
    listed $3,300
23. 2018-06-07
    historical
24. 2018-05-23
    price $360,000
25. 2018-05-10
    listed $375,000 Active
26. 2018-05-06
    historical
27. 2018-01-22
    listed $375,000 Active
28. 2017-12-19
    historical
29. 2017-08-01
    status Active
30. 2017-07-31
    historical
31. 2017-06-01
    price $375,000
32. 2017-04-25
    listed $387,495 Active
33. 2017-03-31
    historical
34. 2017-01-25
    listed $389,000 Active
35. 2017-01-23
    historical
36. 2016-10-06
    listed $389,000 Active
37. 2010-07-20
    historical
38. 2010-06-04
    listed $299,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,299 · $858/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,299 · $858/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$10,299
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,884
• − Management: −$3,884
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$10,254
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,461
• After-tax cash flow: $-263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pecan Grove

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #6017

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pecan Grove, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 575.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+49.7% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $449,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $468,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $499,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-27 Rental Removed $3,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $3,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-24 Listed for Rent $3,300 HARMLS
• 2018-06-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-05-23 Price Changed $360,000 HARMLS
• 2018-05-10 Listed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2018-05-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-01-22 Listed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2017-12-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-08-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-07-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-06-01 Price Changed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2017-04-25 Listed $387,495 HARMLS
• 2017-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-01-25 Listed $389,000 HARMLS
• 2017-01-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-10-06 Listed $389,000 HARMLS
• 2010-07-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-06-04 Listed $299,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,299 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.