3077 Dowgate Dr · Newburgh, IN 47630

$399,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,544 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 183 Days on market

Built 2023 7,841 sqft lot $157/sqft · 6% below area Est $428k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Like-new 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in desirable Newburgh location! Conveniently situated near Friedman Park, Victoria National Golf Club, and scenic walking trails, this beautifully maintained home offers both comfort and style. Walking up to the home you will notice the extended driveway and covered front porch, perfect for a few rocking chairs. The front of the home features a private office, perfect for remote work or a quiet study. Inside, you’ll love the oversized open-concept living area filled with loads of natural light, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Two large storage closets add exceptional functionality. The upgraded kitchen showcases stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, a huge walk-in pantry, and ample cabinetry. A convenient half bath completes the main level. Upstairs, a spacious loft provides the perfect play area or second living space. The expansive primary suite easily accommodates a sitting area and features a spa-like bathroom with a tiled shower, abundant cabinetry, and a large walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms—each with oversized walk-in closets—share a second full bath. The laundry room is conveniently located upstairs. Step outside to enjoy the fully fenced backyard with vinyl fencing, gorgeous landscaping, and an oversized patio—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This move-in-ready home combines modern upgrades, generous space, and an unbeatable location—don’t miss it!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Private office
• Upgraded kitchen

Tags

• EXTENDED DRIVEWAY
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• PRIVATE OFFICE
• LARGE STORAGE CLOSETS
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-422 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (34.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Newburgh — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#21 in IN, #1,922 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Warrick County School Corporation (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 249 units permitted in Warrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warrick County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $261,594 (34.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $428,352
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -6.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3187 Goswell Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,623 (+3%)	2mo	$424,400	$162	90
5103 Jackson Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,611 (+3%)	3mo	$480,000	$184	88
4812 Chelmsford Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,486 (-2%)	2mo	$384,800	$155	86
3151 Dowgate Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,611 (+3%)	9mo	$419,800	$161	85
4680 Chelmsford Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,486 (-2%)	3mo	$384,800	$155	84
5123 Jackson Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,785 (+10%)	2mo	$484,800	$174	78
4904 Alaina Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,784 (+9%)	3mo	$446,000	$160	77
3211 Goswell Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,787 (+10%)	8mo	$456,800	$164	70
5153 Jackson Dr	0.12mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,818 (+11%)	10mo	$501,407	$178	62
5381 Bloomsbury Ct	0.48mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,780 (+9%)	2mo	$437,900	$158	56
5498 Abbe Wood Dr	0.63mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,902 (+14%)	3mo	$575,000	$198	40
5573 Camden Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,228 (-12%)	8mo	$395,000	$177	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-78,003
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-40,163
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47630

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,616 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,702/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $-422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,151

Max offer price $325,296

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4817 White Chapel Dr Newburgh, IN	4.0	2.5	2791	$2,600	$0.93	21d	1	0.47mi
5756 Waterstone Dr Newburgh, IN	5.0	3.0	2624	$3,300	$1.26	43d	1	0.84mi
2035 Long Cove Cir Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	2303	$2,395	$1.04	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,900 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,900 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,900 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Active 173 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,900 Active 172 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $399,900 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $404,000 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $404,000 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    price $404,500 1487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1487 chars)

    Like-new 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in desirable Newburgh location! Conveniently situated near Friedman Park, Victoria National Golf Club, and scenic walking trails, this beautifully maintained home offers both comfort and style. Walking up to the home you will notice the extended driveway and covered front porch, perfect for a few rocking chairs. The front of the home features a private office, perfect for remote work or a quiet study. Inside, you’ll love the oversized open-concept living area filled with loads of natural light, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Two large storage closets add exceptional functionality. The upgraded kitchen showcases stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, a huge walk-in pantry, and ample cabinetry. A convenient half bath completes the main level. Upstairs, a spacious loft provides the perfect play area or second living space. The expansive primary suite easily accommodates a sitting area and features a spa-like bathroom with a tiled shower, abundant cabinetry, and a large walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms—each with oversized walk-in closets—share a second full bath. The laundry room is conveniently located upstairs. Step outside to enjoy the fully fenced backyard with vinyl fencing, gorgeous landscaping, and an oversized patio—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This move-in-ready home combines modern upgrades, generous space, and an unbeatable location—don’t miss it!

16. 2026-02-27
    price $405,000 1487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1487 chars)

    Like-new 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in desirable Newburgh location! Conveniently situated near Friedman Park, Victoria National Golf Club, and scenic walking trails, this beautifully maintained home offers both comfort and style. Walking up to the home you will notice the extended driveway and covered front porch, perfect for a few rocking chairs. The front of the home features a private office, perfect for remote work or a quiet study. Inside, you’ll love the oversized open-concept living area filled with loads of natural light, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Two large storage closets add exceptional functionality. The upgraded kitchen showcases stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, a huge walk-in pantry, and ample cabinetry. A convenient half bath completes the main level. Upstairs, a spacious loft provides the perfect play area or second living space. The expansive primary suite easily accommodates a sitting area and features a spa-like bathroom with a tiled shower, abundant cabinetry, and a large walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms—each with oversized walk-in closets—share a second full bath. The laundry room is conveniently located upstairs. Step outside to enjoy the fully fenced backyard with vinyl fencing, gorgeous landscaping, and an oversized patio—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This move-in-ready home combines modern upgrades, generous space, and an unbeatable location—don’t miss it!

17. 2026-02-03
    price $412,000 1487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1487 chars)

    Like-new 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in desirable Newburgh location! Conveniently situated near Friedman Park, Victoria National Golf Club, and scenic walking trails, this beautifully maintained home offers both comfort and style. Walking up to the home you will notice the extended driveway and covered front porch, perfect for a few rocking chairs. The front of the home features a private office, perfect for remote work or a quiet study. Inside, you’ll love the oversized open-concept living area filled with loads of natural light, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Two large storage closets add exceptional functionality. The upgraded kitchen showcases stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, a huge walk-in pantry, and ample cabinetry. A convenient half bath completes the main level. Upstairs, a spacious loft provides the perfect play area or second living space. The expansive primary suite easily accommodates a sitting area and features a spa-like bathroom with a tiled shower, abundant cabinetry, and a large walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms—each with oversized walk-in closets—share a second full bath. The laundry room is conveniently located upstairs. Step outside to enjoy the fully fenced backyard with vinyl fencing, gorgeous landscaping, and an oversized patio—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This move-in-ready home combines modern upgrades, generous space, and an unbeatable location—don’t miss it!

18. 2026-01-20
    price $413,000 1487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1487 chars)

    Like-new 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in desirable Newburgh location! Conveniently situated near Friedman Park, Victoria National Golf Club, and scenic walking trails, this beautifully maintained home offers both comfort and style. Walking up to the home you will notice the extended driveway and covered front porch, perfect for a few rocking chairs. The front of the home features a private office, perfect for remote work or a quiet study. Inside, you’ll love the oversized open-concept living area filled with loads of natural light, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Two large storage closets add exceptional functionality. The upgraded kitchen showcases stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, a huge walk-in pantry, and ample cabinetry. A convenient half bath completes the main level. Upstairs, a spacious loft provides the perfect play area or second living space. The expansive primary suite easily accommodates a sitting area and features a spa-like bathroom with a tiled shower, abundant cabinetry, and a large walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms—each with oversized walk-in closets—share a second full bath. The laundry room is conveniently located upstairs. Step outside to enjoy the fully fenced backyard with vinyl fencing, gorgeous landscaping, and an oversized patio—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This move-in-ready home combines modern upgrades, generous space, and an unbeatable location—don’t miss it!

19. 2025-12-17
    listed $415,000 Active 1487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1487 chars)

    Like-new 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in desirable Newburgh location! Conveniently situated near Friedman Park, Victoria National Golf Club, and scenic walking trails, this beautifully maintained home offers both comfort and style. Walking up to the home you will notice the extended driveway and covered front porch, perfect for a few rocking chairs. The front of the home features a private office, perfect for remote work or a quiet study. Inside, you’ll love the oversized open-concept living area filled with loads of natural light, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Two large storage closets add exceptional functionality. The upgraded kitchen showcases stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, a huge walk-in pantry, and ample cabinetry. A convenient half bath completes the main level. Upstairs, a spacious loft provides the perfect play area or second living space. The expansive primary suite easily accommodates a sitting area and features a spa-like bathroom with a tiled shower, abundant cabinetry, and a large walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms—each with oversized walk-in closets—share a second full bath. The laundry room is conveniently located upstairs. Step outside to enjoy the fully fenced backyard with vinyl fencing, gorgeous landscaping, and an oversized patio—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This move-in-ready home combines modern upgrades, generous space, and an unbeatable location—don’t miss it!

20. 2023-12-28
    soldstatus $396,800 Closed 987-char remark

    Show marketing remark (987 chars)

    This Freedom Series home features a large open-concept main floor, including a home office just off the foyer with storage, a family room, a kitchen with an island, a large walk-in pantry, and a dining area with access to the expanded patio. The upgraded kitchen layout includes granite countertops, a tile backsplash, and a stainless steel appliance package with a gas range. The stairs to the second floor are conveniently located off the main living space and lead to an upstairs bonus room, ideal for a game room, playroom, homework area, or additional television space. The huge owner's suite offers an ensuite bath with a double bowl vanity, a ceramic shower, and a large walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms, each with spacious walk-in closets, a second full bathroom, and a laundry room are on the second floor. RevWood Select Grandbury Oak flooring is throughout the main living areas and ceramic tile is installed in the wet areas. Jagoe TechSmart components are included.

21. 2023-12-11
    status Pending 987-char remark

    Show marketing remark (987 chars)

    This Freedom Series home features a large open-concept main floor, including a home office just off the foyer with storage, a family room, a kitchen with an island, a large walk-in pantry, and a dining area with access to the expanded patio. The upgraded kitchen layout includes granite countertops, a tile backsplash, and a stainless steel appliance package with a gas range. The stairs to the second floor are conveniently located off the main living space and lead to an upstairs bonus room, ideal for a game room, playroom, homework area, or additional television space. The huge owner's suite offers an ensuite bath with a double bowl vanity, a ceramic shower, and a large walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms, each with spacious walk-in closets, a second full bathroom, and a laundry room are on the second floor. RevWood Select Grandbury Oak flooring is throughout the main living areas and ceramic tile is installed in the wet areas. Jagoe TechSmart components are included.

22. 2023-12-11
    listed $396,800 Active 987-char remark

    Show marketing remark (987 chars)

    This Freedom Series home features a large open-concept main floor, including a home office just off the foyer with storage, a family room, a kitchen with an island, a large walk-in pantry, and a dining area with access to the expanded patio. The upgraded kitchen layout includes granite countertops, a tile backsplash, and a stainless steel appliance package with a gas range. The stairs to the second floor are conveniently located off the main living space and lead to an upstairs bonus room, ideal for a game room, playroom, homework area, or additional television space. The huge owner's suite offers an ensuite bath with a double bowl vanity, a ceramic shower, and a large walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms, each with spacious walk-in closets, a second full bathroom, and a laundry room are on the second floor. RevWood Select Grandbury Oak flooring is throughout the main living areas and ceramic tile is installed in the wet areas. Jagoe TechSmart components are included.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,702 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,051 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: +$349/yr (+$29/mo · 12.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,391
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$2,702
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,511
• − Management: −$2,511
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$12,367
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,968
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrick County School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1812390
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $62,801
• Composite: 49.38/100
• National rank: #2014
• State rank: #24 of 301 in IN

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #1922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warrick County · 39,818 people
• City population: 39,818
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 39,818
• Household income: $94,162
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 770.0

Population outlook (Warrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,569 people
• By 2030: 68,404 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 71,131 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 72,743 · +9.3%
• By 2075: 76,088 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 72,261 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 34.1% · R 64.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+27.8 2016: R+33.9 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.44%
• Current HPI: 185.7643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.69%
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $404,500 IRMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $405,000 IRMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $412,000 IRMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $413,000 IRMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $415,000 IRMLS
• 2023-12-28 Sold (MLS) $396,800 IRMLS
• 2023-12-11 Pending — IRMLS
• 2023-12-11 Listed $396,800 IRMLS