3904 Monica Ln · Johnsburg, IL 60051

$313,440

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,785 sqft · Townhouse · 323 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 3,000 sqft lot $176/sqft · at area comps Est $326k · at est. $239/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW MIDDLE UNIT 2-STORY 3 BEDS + DEN/ 2.1 BATHS TOWNHOUSE TO BE BUILT WITH JOHNSBURG SCHOOLS! 4 Plans to Choose from including one Ranch Style Townhome and Three Two Story Town Houses. TOWNHOUSE IS LOCATED IN A PLANNED URBAN DEVELOPMENT (PUD) AND IS APPROVED FOR FHA, VA AND CONVENTIONAL FINANCING! Tucked away in a corner of scenic McHenry county, Remington Grove boasts quality new townhomes in Johnsburg. This is a beautiful area that still maintains its small town charm. Great schools! 77 NEW CONSTRUCTION LUXURY TOWN HOUSES TO BE BUILT!

Key facts

• $239 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $313k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-566 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.9% in Johnsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#111 in IL, #1,796 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Johnsburg CUSD 12 (suburban): math 22% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #321 of 620 in IL (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ringwood School Primary Ctr (433 students, 0% FRL); Johnsburg Jr High School (math 23% / reading 26%, grade F, #332 of 665 statewide, top 55%, 344 students, 0% FRL); Johnsburg High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #187 of 693 statewide, top 30%, 560 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 19% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,595 units permitted in McHenry County in 2024 (485 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• McHenry County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $231,469 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.75%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,401
• List price: $313,440
• Delta: -3.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3913 Monica Ln #2	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,785 (0%)	5mo	$372,156	$208	93
3919 Monica Ln #5	0.06mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,785 (0%)	2mo	$369,905	$207	91
3824 Monica Ln #3	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,785 (0%)	9mo	$313,870	$176	91
4007 Monica Ln #4	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,785 (0%)	9mo	$345,730	$194	89
3902 Monica Ln	0.01mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,857 (+4%)	2mo	$346,770	$187	83
3910 Monica Ln	0.02mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,587 (-11%)	2mo	$296,500	$187	74
3915 Monica Ln #3	0.05mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,587 (-11%)	2mo	$324,865	$205	72
3917 Monica Ln #4	0.05mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,587 (-11%)	3mo	$335,075	$211	71
4004 Monica Ln #3	0.05mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,587 (-11%)	9mo	$306,680	$193	67
3921 Monica Ln #6	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,565 (-12%)	7mo	$352,195	$225	64
3712 Monica Ln #1	0.08mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,020 (+13%)	9mo	$305,000	$151	62
2904 Payton Xing	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,728 (-3%)	5mo	$275,000	$159	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $134,810
• Equity at exit: $282,372

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $425,728
• Equity at exit: $608,945

Cash invested: $87,763 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60051

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,327 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,644
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$392 /mo · $4,702/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$239
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-566

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,044

Max offer price $231,469

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-350	-5% $-458	+0% $-566	+5% $-675	+10% $-783
Rent	-10% $-750	-5% $-658	+0% $-566	+5% $-475	+10% $-383
Rate	-1.0pp $-409	-0.5pp $-487	base $-566	+0.5pp $-648	+1.0pp $-730

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,360
• Closing costs: $9,403
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2554 Evergreen Cir Unit 2554 McHenry, IL	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,350	$1.57	0d	1	0.92mi
2554 Evergreen Cir Unit 2554 McHenry, IL	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,300	$1.53	17d	1	0.92mi
3415 Blake Rd McHenry, IL	3.0	1.0–2.0	926	$2,338	$2.52	0d	19	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $239 · $2,868/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $313,440 Active 323 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $313,440 Active 320 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $313,440 Active 319 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $313,440 Active 318 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $313,440 Active 317 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $313,440 Active 315 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $313,440 Active 314 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $313,440 Active 311 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $313,440 Active 310 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $313,440 Active 309 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $313,440 Active 306 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $313,440 Active 305 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $313,440 Active 304 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $313,440 Active 303 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $313,440 Active 302 DOM
16. 2025-08-14
    price $313,440 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    BRAND NEW MIDDLE UNIT 2-STORY 3 BEDS + DEN/ 2.1 BATHS TOWNHOUSE TO BE BUILT WITH JOHNSBURG SCHOOLS! 4 Plans to Choose from including one Ranch Style Townhome and Three Two Story Town Houses. TOWNHOUSE IS LOCATED IN A PLANNED URBAN DEVELOPMENT (PUD) AND IS APPROVED FOR FHA, VA AND CONVENTIONAL FINANCING! Tucked away in a corner of scenic McHenry county, Remington Grove boasts quality new townhomes in Johnsburg. This is a beautiful area that still maintains its small town charm. Great schools! 77 NEW CONSTRUCTION LUXURY TOWN HOUSES TO BE BUILT!

17. 2025-08-02
    listed $308,900 Active 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    BRAND NEW MIDDLE UNIT 2-STORY 3 BEDS + DEN/ 2.1 BATHS TOWNHOUSE TO BE BUILT WITH JOHNSBURG SCHOOLS! 4 Plans to Choose from including one Ranch Style Townhome and Three Two Story Town Houses. TOWNHOUSE IS LOCATED IN A PLANNED URBAN DEVELOPMENT (PUD) AND IS APPROVED FOR FHA, VA AND CONVENTIONAL FINANCING! Tucked away in a corner of scenic McHenry county, Remington Grove boasts quality new townhomes in Johnsburg. This is a beautiful area that still maintains its small town charm. Great schools! 77 NEW CONSTRUCTION LUXURY TOWN HOUSES TO BE BUILT!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,558
• − Property taxes: −$4,702
• − Insurance: −$1,567
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,234
• − Management: −$2,234
• − HOA: −$2,868
• − Depreciation: −$9,118
• Taxable loss: −$12,353
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,965
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,833/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New windows and doors — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New windows and doors — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnsburg CUSD 12
• NCES district ID: 1720490
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $79,626
• Composite: 22.0/100
• National rank: #8206
• State rank: #321 of 620 in IL

Livability — Johnsburg

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #1796

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnsburg, IL
• Population (ZIP): 23,931

Population outlook (McHenry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 305,342 people
• By 2030: 301,491 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 288,211 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 268,430 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 226,209 · -25.9%
• By 2100: 181,247 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McHenry

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.3) · D 46.6% · R 51.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: -5.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.3 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+8.1 2012: R+8.8 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.50%
• Current HPI: 612.07
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $313,440 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-02 Listed $308,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid