6482 Bucking Bronco Dr · Jacksonville, FL 32234

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,395 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2021 6,969 sqft lot Est $246k · at est. $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * 2.75% Fixed Assumable Mortgage Available! Ask Listing Agent For Details! * * * Buyer to qualify with PennyMac Mortgage. SAVE THOUSANDS AND LOW MONTHLY PAYMENT!! Beautiful 3BR/2BA single-story home built in 2021 with a two-car garage, priced for a quick sale. This move-in ready home features fresh interior paint, an open floor plan, and a spacious kitchen with island. All kitchen appliances convey. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard overlooking the lagoon, offering peaceful water views and added privacy. Ideal for first-time buyers, growing families, or those looking to downsize. Located in the Winchester Ridge community with amenities including a clubhouse, large pool, volleyball cour

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with annual fee of $150; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, playground; CDD fee applies

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential single-family use
• Exterior features: Fronts a lagoon; Community pool (not private)

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, microwave, refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, heat pump); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Includes dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mamie Agnes Jones Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 430 students, 61% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); Marine Science Education Center (31 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,845 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.08%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,520
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6433 Bucking Bronco Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+12%)	6mo	$255,000	$163	70
6093 Bucking Bronco Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,219 (-13%)	11mo	$230,000	$189	66
15748 Equine Gait Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,219 (-13%)	20mo	$259,000	$212	57
15644 Saddled Charger Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+12%)	22mo	$275,000	$176	52
15319 Bareback Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+10%)	0mo	$250,000	$162	49
15324 Hidden Foal Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+10%)	14mo	$260,000	$169	39
6113 Dappled Bay Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+10%)	24mo	$275,000	$179	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-16,983
• Equity at exit: $78,239

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $5,245
• Equity at exit: $98,706

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32234

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,136 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$498 /mo · $5,974/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,437

Max offer price $207,845

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-97	-5% $-167	+0% $-238	+5% $-309	+10% $-380
Rent	-10% $-407	-5% $-322	+0% $-238	+5% $-154	+10% $-69
Rate	-1.0pp $-112	-0.5pp $-175	base $-238	+0.5pp $-303	+1.0pp $-369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15729 Equine Gait Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,950	$1.18	0d	1	0.09mi
6092 Bucking Bronco Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,995	$1.12	10d	1	0.13mi
6137 Black Stallion Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1862	$1,955	$1.05	0d	1	0.17mi
15647 Woodbury Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1863	$1,773	$0.95	0d	27	0.38mi
15246 Hidden Foal Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,900	$1.10	14d	1	0.77mi
15180 Bareback Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$1,999	$1.09	5d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $249,900 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-23
    price $249,900
16. 2026-04-09
    price $259,900
17. 2026-04-08
    status Active
18. 2026-04-02
    status Pending
19. 2026-03-20
    price $265,000
20. 2026-03-11
    listed $269,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,974 · $498/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,974 · $498/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$5,974
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,051
• − Management: −$2,051
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$7,117
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,708
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,678
• Household income: $87,331
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Current HPI: 288.4613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $249,900 realMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $259,900 realMLS
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $265,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $269,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,974 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.