2073 Bobby Ashcraft Dr · Lindale, TX 75706

$258,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,606 sqft · SingleFamily · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot $161/sqft · at area comps Est $265k · at est. $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this beautiful new construction home. Situated in bustling Lindale TX, The Reserve at Timber Creek has excellent access to the Tyler and DFW metro areas and the ETX region. Come see what this community has to offer you and your family! Our homes are energy star rated and come with new construction warranties. All of our homes have quartz granite countertops, sod and landscaping, and sprinkler systems. Please call to ask about financing incentives! Showings by appointment only.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Lindale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#52 in TX, #2,100 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lindale ISD (town): math 71% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #20 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $208,239 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.11%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,325
• List price: $258,490
• Delta: -2.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2049 Bobby Ashcraft Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,607 (+0%)	0mo	$256,490	$160	97
2025 Bobby Ashcraft Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,606 (0%)	1mo	$259,490	$162	94
6013 Freedom Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,607 (+0%)	1mo	$267,660	$167	90
2005 Bobby Ashcraft Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,738 (+8%)	2mo	$279,990	$161	76
2076 Bobby Ashcraft Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-12%)	1mo	$261,645	$185	73
2069 Bobby Ashcraft Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-12%)	4mo	$262,990	$186	72
16310 Crossing Cir	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,645 (+2%)	5mo	$317,000	$193	72
2045 Bobby Ashcraft Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-12%)	1mo	$253,295	$179	71
6021 Freedom Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-12%)	2mo	$257,045	$182	65
15630 Brittain Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,453 (-10%)	10mo	$299,900	$206	61
16513 Crossing Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (+6%)	4mo	$307,700	$181	58
16509 Crossing Cir	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,819 (+13%)	8mo	$369,900	$203	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $73,909
• Equity at exit: $174,354

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $224,408
• Equity at exit: $326,960

Cash invested: $72,377 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75706

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,356
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$323 /mo · $3,877/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,319

Max offer price $231,391

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,622
• Closing costs: $7,755
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15614 Garden Ln Lindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$2,250	$1.40	43d	1	0.56mi
13780 County Road 4198 Lindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,500	$1.24	20d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $258,490 504-char remark

   Show marketing remark (504 chars)

   Take a look at this beautiful new construction home. Situated in bustling Lindale TX, The Reserve at Timber Creek has excellent access to the Tyler and DFW metro areas and the ETX region. Come see what this community has to offer you and your family! Our homes are energy star rated and come with new construction warranties. All of our homes have quartz granite countertops, sod and landscaping, and sprinkler systems. Please call to ask about financing incentives! Showings by appointment only.

2. 2026-05-11
   price $261,490 504-char remark

   Show marketing remark (504 chars)

   Take a look at this beautiful new construction home. Situated in bustling Lindale TX, The Reserve at Timber Creek has excellent access to the Tyler and DFW metro areas and the ETX region. Come see what this community has to offer you and your family! Our homes are energy star rated and come with new construction warranties. All of our homes have quartz granite countertops, sod and landscaping, and sprinkler systems. Please call to ask about financing incentives! Showings by appointment only.

3. 2026-04-13
   listed $259,490 Active 504-char remark

   Show marketing remark (504 chars)

   Take a look at this beautiful new construction home. Situated in bustling Lindale TX, The Reserve at Timber Creek has excellent access to the Tyler and DFW metro areas and the ETX region. Come see what this community has to offer you and your family! Our homes are energy star rated and come with new construction warranties. All of our homes have quartz granite countertops, sod and landscaping, and sprinkler systems. Please call to ask about financing incentives! Showings by appointment only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,479
• − Property taxes: −$3,877
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,999
• − Management: −$1,999
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,520
• Taxable loss: −$6,730
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,615
• After-tax cash flow: $-632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This beautiful new construction home in Lindale, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Fresh flooring improves aesthetics and adds value
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Fresh flooring improves aesthetics and adds value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lindale ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827510
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,325
• Composite: 58.85/100
• National rank: #974
• State rank: #20 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lindale

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #2100

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lindale, TX
• City population: 21,238
• Population (ZIP): 10,975

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 40% Black 14% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 31% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.72%
• Current HPI: 234.9412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $258,490 NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $261,490 NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $259,490 NTREIS